Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS66 KHNX 250503
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1003 PM PDT Sun May 24 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Wind Advisory in effect 11 PM Monday to 11 AM Wednesday for
Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Desert Slopes, and Mojave Desert.

2. Lake Wind Advisory in effect 5 PM Monday to 5 PM Wednesday
for Kern River Valley, including Lake Isabella.

3. Dry conditions will allow the fire weather risk to remain in
place through this week.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water
is still running cold.

5. Omega Block pattern will keep temperatures pleasant but
allow for dry lightning chances in the Sierra Nevada for the
next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With the zonal flow pattern dominating the region ahead of a
disturbance moving ashore on Memorial Day, temperatures are
already seeing a significant drop. With many valley locations
already showing max temperatures in the upper 80s, confidence is
high that further cooling will be seen this Memorial Day and
the mid-week period. While Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of
reaching 90F-deg is still showing 20-30 percent chances over
Southwest Kern County, the trend is to go cooler through Mid-
week. PoE of 90F-deg drops to below 10 percent for Tuesday
through Thursday with a signal toward rising PoE by Friday. A
warming trend is then expected over the Weekend.

With a significant onshore push of cooler air, enough of a
gradient will exist to generate strong winds over the Coastal
Range. By Monday, the westerly will be replaced with a Closed
Low pattern over the Pacific Northwest as additional marine air
surges ashore. A more significant gradient will exist over
Central California as strong winds develop over the higher
terrain of the Sierra Nevada, Tehachapi and Coastal Range. The
affects felt over the San Joaquin Valley will be in the form of
cooling temperatures and locally strong winds. Currently, the
PoE of reaching 40 MPH will sit at 50 to 70 percent by Tuesday
once the cooler air overspreads much of Central California. A
Wind Advisory is in place for the Eastern Portions of the Kern
County Mountains, the Mojave Slopes, as strong winds are
expected toward the mid-week period.

The increased west wind will provide enough lift for the
continuation of afternoon convection across the higher terrain
of the Sierra Nevada on Monday. Ensembles keep measurable
precipitation near the Crest and taper percentages to near zero
over areas below 5,000 feet. Thunderstorm probabilities show
similar values over similar locations to that of measurable
precipitation.

While temperatures area still warm during this Holiday weekend,
water ways will be running cold. Exercise caution around lakes,
rivers, and streams as even the most experienced swimmers can
lose dexterity in cold water.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevailing across interior central California
for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 PM Monday to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ337>339.

Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ332.

&&

$$

Public/Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford