Merced, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

130
FXUS66 KHNX 241722
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1022 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Temperatures increase on Sunday before cooling on Monday with
another warmup beginning Tuesday through the week.
2. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the
Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening
3. Winds pick up late Sunday night into Monday for the Mojave
slopes.
4. Humidities improve Sunday and Monday before decreasing
Tuesday and holding about 20 percent in the Valley for the
remainder of the week.
5. There is a 40 to 50 percent chance of triple digits on
Friday for the Valley.



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.DISCUSSION...
We have cooler temperatures today thanks to a shortwave trough
that is in the area but moving east. This trough brings cooler
temperatures this afternoon but also a 10 to 20 percent chance
of thunderstorms to the Sierra Nevada today. This thunderstorm
potential increases the risk of possible fires.

We have a small ridge building in on Sunday that will increase
temperatures before another shortwave trough moves through on
Monday. This second shortwave will cool afternoon highs, improve
minimum humidities, but also will bring stronger winds to the
area. However, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of 45 mph wind
gusts in the slopes so a Wind Advisory has not been issued but
could become an option tomorrow. The increase in winds could
also bring

Tuesday starts a warming trend to the area for the remainder of
the week with even a 40 to 50 percent chance of triple digits in
the Valley on Friday. Saturday has a 60 to 70 percent chance of
triple digits. However, afternoon wind gusts will also increase
after Wednesday in the Valley to be around 10 to 15 mph by
Saturday afternoon. The afternoon low humidity is forecast to be
around 15 to 20 percent for much of the week. The combination of
low humidity, increasing temperatures and wind gusts increase
the risk of fire over the week.

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.AVIATION...
18Z Update:
There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms until 03Z
for the Sierra Nevada. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  05/23/2025 14:06
EXPIRES: 05/24/2025 23:59
None.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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